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Understanding the NFL Draft

May 28, 2002

UNDERSTANDING THE NFL DRAFT, PART 2

In my last installment, we discussed the theory of how a team picks in the first round, and some of the comedy surrounding all of the prognostication of how things will turn out, on the part of those outside the process. Today, let's get into the meat of things, if you will, and discuss how a team thinks when they draft. For those of you in management in corporate America, you may find the following to be eerily familiar.

Motivation factor #1....FEAR
Believe it or not, fear is the most prevalent factor influencing how a team drafts. What could they be afraid of, you may ask? How about everything. The General Manager and Coach (sometimes one and the same person) are fearful of getting fired by the owner if the draft is a flop.

The head scouts are fearful of being fired by the General Manager if their scouting reports don't hold up to scrutiny when the player reports to camp. The assistant coaches are afraid that some of their players may be "over the hill", and need replacing. The Chief Financial Officer, known in the NFL as the "Capologist" is worried about fitting all the pieces under the salary cap. But perhaps the biggest fear on draft day is that some other team will "scoop" them on a player they wanted. Most all draft boards are reflective of not only how a team rates the different players available, but more importantly whether they think there is a realistic shot at getting them before someone else does.

The NFL Draft is, after all, nothing more than a highly organized feeding frenzy. This is the reason for so many trades during the draft, that to many outsiders (and some insiders) don't seem to make much sense. After all, why else would a team trade a third and fifth round pick to another team just for the right to move up three or four spots in the same round? The answer is because they felt the player they wanted in the first round would be taken by another team if they didn't. Often, in retrospect, teams get roundly criticized for making trades that turned out to be unneccesary, because once all the cards have been played, the player they wanted probably would've been there for them anyway. But remember, fear makes us act irrationally. Logic that seems obvious after the dust has cleared is not so easy to see in the heat of the moment.

Another aspect of fear in the draft is what some other team has that they don't. This applies in two ways. First, as it relates to the draft itself. You will often hear people covering the draft referring to a "run" on receivers or defensive ends, or any other position. For instance, they may say, "The Bengals may have taken OT Levi Jones because they feared a "run" on Offensive Tackles before the first round was over, and didn't want to wait until the second round to address the need." What do they mean by this?

Well, they're talking about fear that some other team will get the player they feel they need before they have an opportunity to do much about it. After the New York Giants drafted Miami TE Jeremy Shockey with their first pick, the New England Patriots traded up in the first round to the 21st spot in order to grab Colorodo TE Daniel Graham, as they felt he wouldn't make it to them at the 31st pick once the tight ends "started to go". (The fear in that case was that Seattle, who was slated to pick before New England, would take the player they wanted).

The second way that fear applies here is in relation to what teams already have. The Philadelphia Eagles went with a cornerback with their first pick, which came as a surprise to some, since they already have one of the more talented secondaries in the NFL. However, when you play against strong passing teams, you often will employ 5 or 6 defensive backs, instead of the normal 4. Many astute observers felt that Philly was bracing itself for a rematch with the Rams next season, who they may see as their only obstacle to the Super Bowl. So, to conclude the point, teams will try and improve where they feel they need the most help to compete against the teams they need to beat to make it to, and then advance in the playoffs. In other words, they fear what other teams already have.

Motivation factor #2.....CONTROL
You may wonder, control? What does control have to do with the NFL Draft? Well, let me ask you, the reader....How often does your boss make decisions about your job or your position for no other reason than to assert control? Is not the basis of all management establishing a measure of control? A General Manager of a football team wants control of the direction the team takes. So does the coach. If these positions are held by one and the same person, no problem. But most of the time, it isn't. So it's important that both men see eye to eye in terms of their philosophy for building a football team, or one or the other isn't long for the organization.

The NFL Draft provides a tremendous public stage on which these men can put their most visible stamp of identity on a football team. Through the draft you can mold your team into your image by drafting players who fit your philosophy. In fact, this is one of the tricks that the draftniks use to project where players will go before the draft starts. (Believe it or not, some of these guys are right on as many as 90% of the selections. Last year, Will McDonough, who is semi-retired, was right on 24 of the 31 first round picks, which is pretty impressive in my book.) They look at the people making the selections and not only study the teams' needs, but also the personality and history of the General Manager and/or Coach.

It was no surprise to many that Cleveland coach Butch Davis selected Boston College tailback William Green with his first pick this year, because he fits the mold of what Davis is trying to accomplish in Cleveland. The Browns began to assume the identity of their coach last season, with a tough, new attitude on defense featuring agrressive secondary play and getting after the quarterback, but Davis was frustrated to no end by the fact his quarterback, Tim Couch, was getting killed because they simply could not run the football with any consistency. He wants a team that can run the ball, control the clock, and an opportunistic defense that doesn't allow many points and creates turnovers. So his selection was easy to predict. Coach Davis was excercising CONTROL over his team. If the word control makes you uncomfortable, then I'll put it the same way your boss does to you....It's an organizational philosophy. I like to simplify things.....they want control.

Motivation factor #3.....MONEY
Again you may wonder, money? What does money have to do with the draft? Well, just about everything. Let's go back to the salary cap. Each team has only so much money they are allowed to spend on their roster each year, in the league's hope of not only controlling player salaries for the good of the game, but also to prevent the richer owners from pushing the fringe-market teams out of the competitive picture. (Are you listening, Major League Baseball?) Each player in the draft represents a hypothetical money figure. I say hypothetical because the market hasn't been established yet, and won't be until some of the first-rounders start signing contracts, which you may be surprised to find out is usually months after they have been drafted.

This money figure is important, because where a player gets drafted not only greatly impacts the income of the player, but greatly affects the salary structure of the team. This is why I stated in my last article that if I ran an NFL team I would trade out of the first round every year. Of course that's silly, but I'm not far off the mark of how teams wish they could do it. They can't do it usually, but only because the allure of blue-chip talent is too great. But if the talent level was rather consistent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, in comparison with the first, many teams would in fact seriously consider my suggestion, and some do so regularly as it is.

When a team states that they didn't like a draft, as the Patriots did this past year, what are they really saying? Simple. It's not that there weren't plenty of players they wouldn't love to suit up as Patriots, just not for the amount of money they would have to pay them to do it.

In other words, Joe Blow from Passaholic U. might be a really good receiver, but just not for 1st round money. Maybe they feel that in a draft loaded with receiver talent, that he'd slip to the 3rd or even 4th round, but in a weak field with slim pickings, he's not worth the price unless you're desperate. This is a huge factor in how the draft plays out. It's the reason why quarterbacks, defensive ends/tackles, and offensive tackles tend to go high in the first round.

Running backs traditionally go high as well, but since so many teams feature backs today who were drafted in later rounds, and it's a copycat league, a lot of teams shy away from them now. The bottom line is this: For a team to shell out multiple millions for a kid that hasn't played a down of football in the NFL yet, they better be sure he's going to start for them and be productive in the near future. Anything less is disastrous.

The flip side of this coin, of course, is that often in the later rounds of the draft, teams can acquire what is referred to affectionately as "steals". Players who have tremendous potential, or who turn out to be highly productive players in the NFL, who for whatever reason were not highly regarded by many teams on draft day. And here's the key: FOR MUCH LESS DOUGH. I still find it hard to believe that Curtis Martin was originally a 3rd round draft choice.

In my next installment, I'm going to get specific regarding the teams, who they picked, and what I think of all of it. Until then, thanks for reading.

Am I the only one who can't wait for training camp?? I can't be.

Dave


Previous Articles

The Winning Ingredients
Time to Gloat
'02 Draft Part 1

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About the Author;
Dave LeBlanc is a part-time freelance writer with a life-long NFL addiction. Trust me ... I know!

He can be reached at Dave@boomerjournals.com and looks forward to your comments